Thursday, October 7, 2010

The mobile wallet – not yet meeting, let alone exceeding, consumer expectations

September 22, 2010

Originally published by RCR Wireless: http://www.rcrwireless.com/article/20100922/OPINION/100919954/analyst-angle-the-mobile-wallet-8211-not-yet-meeting-let-alone


Despite chattering from technologists and consultants, consumers have consistently been lukewarm to “mobile money” and near-field communications. Given the lack of apparent consumer demand, banks have not been clamoring to build and deploy new products. The credit card eco-system works very well in the United States. Consumers need something more from mobile banking, something that exceeds the functionality they currently enjoy. And merchants need a cost-effective, easy to implement and broadly adopted solution that is better than what they have today.

Earlier this year Marconi Pacific conducted a survey which indicated that 50% of participants were interested in having mobile phones replace the functionality of their credit cards, provided there were additional benefits. In the following months, we have heard a consistent stream of new mobile money announcements, but consumer actions have not followed either their stated interest, or the market opportunity. Marconi Pacific believes that, in the U.S., simply replacing credit and debit cards is insufficient.

To generate meaningful consumer adoption, a successful mobile wallet business model must also include real-time couponing (to save consumers' money), real-time financial intelligence (to enable consumers to make better purchasing decisions) and real time accounting (to help consumers manage their money). All the relevant technologies are currently available in some form. Marconi Pacific recently interviewed experts in these areas to solicit their viewpoints:

1. Getting the technology right is imperative

In March, MasterCard trialed a service in Canada with Bell Canada, Telus, and Rogers. Earlier this month Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile announced a joint venture partnership with Discover. These efforts and many more attempts and announcements have been focused on NFC similar to the “tap-and-go” keychain fobs available at gas stations such as the ExxonMobil's Speedpass. These systems require new hardware at the point-of-sale, currently costing over $200. Numerous start-ups are based on NFC. But bank, retailer and consumer adoption has been incredibly slow.

Several startups, however, are creating solutions based on other technologies. Max Metral, the founder of mobile payments company FIG succinctly explained his value proposition. “RFID is available at many retailers but on almost no phones. Even for the five phones where it is available, it can replace plastic, but does not offer the user anything more. And it is expensive for retail establishments to buy new POS terminals. FIG offers a mobile payments solution over a secure Wi-Fi connection that is essentially free for retailers.” Companies like Obopay and Square have also created solutions. Both companies enable phones to store value and transfer funds over wireless data networks. These solutions and others may not have perfected the mobile payments offering but they are solving some of the implementation cost challenges and meeting some of the consumer adoption hurdles.

2. Mobile affinity programs in isolation have not engendered significant consumer interest

In August, Verizon invested $400,000 in mobile loyalty card start-up CardStar. While there are dozens of applications for managing loyalty cards, none are particular consumer friendly, or particularly easy to use. An intelligent mobile system could enhance loyalty programs. Unlike a card, often forgotten in a wallet or in a drawer, a mobile loyalty program can target consumers for immediate promotions based on their location. Combined with mobile payments, consumers could receive real-time credits, promotions, or advertisements

Drew Sievers, the CEO of mFoundry said, “If it were just enough to put a contactless chip on a card, then all the contactless credit cards would be used. But they just aren't getting used. You have to provide incremental value. The question is what is that value? mFoundry has partnered with Starbucks to create an application that enables mobile gift cards. Customers can now see the transaction history and balance. The CEO of Starbucks has been very positive on the results and customer adoption to date.”

3. Mobile couponing has great potential, but only in combination with other services

Consumer interaction with mobile phones enables an unprecedented opportunity for sales and marketing, especially with mobile couponing. Mobile phones are capable of storing and organizing coupons received via all available means (e-mail, SMS, MMS, etc.). If consumers are presented with these coupons at the right time during their purchase process, they would be able to easily manage and use coupons. Location-based couponing (where advertisers find users based on GPS) has had slow adoption – because there is a limited scale for any particular advertiser or user. Combining such services within a mobile wallet potentially increases the likelihood of being able to build a more compelling offering and hence build more scale.

4. A successful mobile wallet service would likely provide real-time purchasing intelligence to consumers

Mint.com, Intuit's web2.0 company providing free personal finance software to assist with money management, financial and budget planning, currently offers both iPhone and Android applications. Mint syncs with consumers' bank and credit accounts to provide purchasing information and the mobile service can now update consumers' data at the moment of purchase. Justin Maxwell, the Mobile Service Product Manager for Mint.com, said: “Mint.com knows that our users are asking us to help them make wise money decisions on the go. They are not looking to go out and spend money and then come back to the computer to see how they did on a scorecard. They are looking for advice while they are out making a decision in real time.”
Combined with mobile couponing, this level of purchasing intelligence could enable consumers to make much more informed purchases. Taken one step further, Mint could soon begin informing consumers of better deals at other locations. Your mobile wallet could let you know that down the street, you could purchase a pair of shoes for less.

Each of the four “services” outlined above has already received some level of consumer interest. Together they might offer a compelling case for smart phone consumers to switch from their plastic credit cards to a digital solution. The start ups are beginning to close the gap. If telecom carriers and/or banks hope to succeed in providing compelling mobile money offers, they need to combine several of these technologies, and offer a portfolio of services that exceed consumer expectations.

And with Nielsen predicting 2011 U.S. smart phone penetration of 50%, there are 150 million potential wallets to replace.

Michael Morgenstern is a Principal at Marconi Pacific, a strategy consulting and venturing firm based in Washington, D.C., focused on telecommunications, media and technology.

Mobile strategy: Applications are not enough

Originally published by Connected Planet: http://connectedplanetonline.com/commentary/apps-not-enough-081910/

August 19, 2010

Many companies have begun to develop mobile applications. This is good news – embracing the rapidly evolving mobile data revolution and beginning to develop iPhone applications are important advancements. But this step is not enough. Rolling out an iPhone application is not a mobile strategy – it is but one small step. To successfully capitalize on mobile technology, companies need a much expanded road map for mobile strategy development and planning.

Nielsen reported 2009 end-of-year smartphone data penetration at 21%, and that is expected to grow to more than 50% in 2011. However, with 2010 U.S. penetration currently around 25%, organizations must take a hard look at whether their existing "mobile strategy" actually reaches their customers.

Today, companies are not reaching enough customers with their iPhone apps. The iPhone applications marketplace is the dominant distribution channel for mobile applications. However, the absolute largest market size for an iPhone application is currently only 8% of mobile phone customers (25% smartphone penetration * 28% iPhone penetration * 80% of users who actually download apps). A business case for an example company with a 25% market penetration (share of available customers) deploying an iPhone app should therefore include no more than 1% of their customers.


Companies need to build an app for Android. Adding an Android app increases the potential customer penetration to 2%. If Nielsen’s 50% number is correct, we predict a 6% to 7% total penetration of Apple + Android users.

For some functions, only messaging is needed. Companies must take a holistic look at how they interact with their customers digitally and then determine which functions and features could or should be extended to a mobile environment. To generate scale, and not face the 2% app fragmentation problem, multiple mobile technologies should be brought together, including SMS and MMS. For example, Singapore Airlines allows check-in for flights by sending a SMS message – smartphones are not needed.


Some services will be better served by a link to a Web site, rather than an application resident on the mobile deck. Device enablement and adoption of HTML5 will result in a return to the past when full applications did not need to be native on mobile devices. Remember WAP pages? HTML5 also enables organizations to design and support a single user experience rather than separate interfaces. In the future, when companies have an SMS/MMS platform for feature phones and a Web page for smartphones, adoption will only be limited by how many customers they can convince to interact with their mobile brand, rather than which of their customers can actually use the native application. Take rates will then reach double digits, generating scale in mobile brand-building and functionality, not just iPhone sizzle.


As an example, the movie ticketing company Fandango delivers its mobile experience in all the ways we have described. Ticket confirmations are currently sent by SMS, MMS, e-mail and mobile app – whichever way the customer prefers. Fandango has currently deployed applications for Apple, BlackBerry, Palm, and Android, and it has a Windows app forthcoming. Customers can purchase tickets directly through their mobile app, and Fandango is developing a scanable bar code (similar to what several airlines have deployed) so that the mobile screen can replace the paper ticket. SMS can be better leveraged to deliver real-time information to all mobile customers. MMS can also be better employed. Fandango sends confirmation images by MMS, for example, when e-mail or applications are unavailable.

All too often, customer needs and desires are under-considered in the quest to launch a new technology, service or product. A successful mobile strategy cannot be solely based on an iPhone or Android app. And companies can improve their mobile strategy development by having a co-creative conversation with customers about their mobile business and personal lifestyles and needs.

Michael Morgenstern is a principal with Marconi Pacific, a strategy and operations consulting firm in Washington, D.C., focused on telecommunications, media and technology.

Open Versus Shut Approaches to Building Business

Originally published in the WSJ as a Letter to the Editor: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704269204575270483291181678.html

June 1, 2010

Holman Jenkins's "Apple's Second Date With History" (Business World, May 26) accurately details the fall and rise of Apple computers. It neglects, however, the key to Apple's success: a laser focus on customer experience.

The current mobile universe is dominated by the value propositions of Apple (pitched at media-loving consumers) and Blackberry (pitched at business users). Google, Palm, Microsoft and a myriad of others have sought to define themselves as hybrids between Apple and Blackberry. This approach has not inspired increased adoption. It is true that Google has and will continue to have a much broader universe of applications due to its platform openness. Consumers, however, continue to spend most of their time using well-built, experience-friendly applications—not those thrown together on shoestring budgets.

The long-tail hypotheses, whereby specialized applications and content are profitably delivered to ever smaller customer segments, continues to prove elusive. In a recent study of 250 smart-phone users, Marconi Pacific determined that people's favorite applications are more often than not the most used and useful applications rather than the newest (only 25% of survey respondents indicated their coolest app was under three months old). This speaks volumes about whether simply having a wider universe of applications gives Google a competitive advantage over Apple. We strongly believe that Apple's meteoric rise has come from strong quality control and deep understanding of the target customer base.

Technology systems trend toward openness, and Google definitely has a unique and dominant position in the market. Apple's closed system, however, has such a "network" effect at this point (music, phone, computer, Apple TV, etc.) that it still has staying power. In the near term Apple has built a defendable competitive position because it delivers a top-notch customer experience.
 
Michael I. Morgenstern
Principal
Marconi Pacific
Boston

Smartphone users eager for mobile money

May 25, 2010

Originally published in Mobile Commerce Daily: http://www.mobilecommercedaily.com/smartphone-users-eager-for-mobile-money/

Over the past few months, Mobile Commerce Daily has been reporting on the recent surge in roll-outs and adoption of banking applications and associated mobile Web sites and SMS systems within the mobile market.

Despite this spotlight on mobile financial applications, the majority of U.S. mobile money offers still consist of only scaled-down versions of Web-functionality.

There are several companies, however, which recognize the room for growth and innovation in mobile financial applications and are steadily working to transform the mobile phone into a mobile wallet.
The early adopters of these new financial applications are and continue to be Web- and mobile-savvy consumers of today.

Smartphone users make up a significant and ever-growing segment of total penetration.
CTIA data indicates 286 million mobile phone users as of December 2009. Data from comScore in February 2009 showed 17 percent smartphone penetration or approximately 50 million smart phone users.

Sending the right signals
Marconi Pacific recently conducted an online survey of 250 smartphone users.  The results showed a strong interest in the concept of mobile money while also indicating product confusion and lack of clarity around the potential options and services.

Of 185 mobile users with smartphones and data plans (subset of the 250 survey respondents):

• 97 percent have used mobile phones for more than two years, 51 percent for 10-plus years
U.S. consumers now appear to be ready for some of the advanced services that have been in-market in Asia for several years due to higher levels of mobile adoption.

• 96 percent spend more than half their mobile time on data services, as opposed to voice
While U.S. smartphone adoption is still modest around 17 percent, these consumers are using their phones more as mobile computing devices than as a means for voice communication.

43 percent currently use, or would be strongly interested in, “tap and go” functionality on their credit cards
While security is usually indicated as a main concern of the use of mobile payments, the progressive adoption of technology and the relative convenience will ultimately assuage these concerns.

• 50 percent have used a mobile banking application
U.S. consumer banks have been very successful in generating adoption of their mobile applications and have increased their interactions with high-use customers by migrating them from the Web browser to the mobile phone.

• 50 percent have strong interest in having mobile phones replace the functionality of their credit cards
Data enabled phones have become like Swiss Army knives and are perceived to be potentially useful as a central device in any electronic system.

Efforts to pay off
As consumers become more technologically and mobile-savvy, the level of interest in mobile payment systems will also increase.

Suppliers, in turn, have taken several steps to meet latent demand for these services.
Three of the most recent efforts in North America – of the dozens around the world – are illustrative:

In May, Visa announced a partnership with DeviceFidelity to provide a contactless payment system for the iPhone – a protective shell with an inserted memory card (see story).

Also in May, Starbucks announced a combined mobile payments and loyalty program delivered through an iPhone application (see story).

In March, EnStream, a joint venture company owned by Canada’s three leading national wireless operators – Bell Mobility, Rogers Communications and TELUS – launched a mobile money contactless system with a MasterCard logo. Initial beta-testers can now tap their mobile phones to any paypass terminal and review the transaction on screen.

The move to mobile applications means that telecommunications providers can gain further adoption and usage from their products and networks.

Credit card providers can spur contactless adoption, increase security – lost phones with security features cannot be used for purchases – and decrease variable costs such as paper and theft.

Customers can track spending and usage more easily and in a more timely fashion rather than waiting until they access their account details.

Yen for payments
Japan has been at the forefront of mobile money technology.

Mobile users in Japan are approaching nearly five years with contactless payments.
The FeliCa smart chip was widely used in plastic cards in the country before NTT DoCoMo launched the technology in mobile phones in July 2004.

Today, a contactless smart chip is standard in most Japanese phones and wireless carriers provide a wide range of services including payments, electronic wallets, marketing applications and loyalty programs.

In response to the success of FeliCa contactless chip technology in DoCoMo mobile phones in Japan, the country’s second largest carrier, KDDI, is set to launch a pilot program of its own NFC technology.

Similar mobile services as FeliCa will be offered, but KDDI is using a standard NFC technology form which is compatible with government ID applications such as driver’s licenses.

The adoption numbers are compelling. An average of 43,527 phone-related contactless transactions occurred in 2009 among 3,141 trial customers – 14 per customer.

In 2009, Citibank launched its “Tap and Pay” pilot project in Bangalore, India.  Eligible credit card holders can purchase a subsidized NFC-enabled handset that was payment ready and use it as a purchasing device in local stores.

While the program highlighted some obstacles to contactless adoption in India, the program generated growth in payment volumes and was generally well received despite the comparably low credit usage in the country.

Wall-to-wallets
We predict that mobile phones will become mainstream mobile wallets in the United States in the next four years.

This trend will enable a large opportunity for telecoms companies to partner with the credit card companies and to offer mobile payment services similar to that of the Bell Canada, TELUS, Rogers and the MasterCard venture in Canada.

Secondarily, credit card companies can pursue a go-it-alone strategy that reduces functionality provided to users without carrier or manufacturer assistance but still meets consumer demand without onerous partnerships.

Finally, savvy marketers such as Starbucks will find opportunities to disintermediate the current value chain and create more effective direct-to-consumer offers, which, in the Starbucks example enables “prebooking” revenue.

We believe that these value propositions need to be defined and further strengthened.

Simultaneously, early marketing information campaigns need to be created and positioned by potential suppliers.

The past decade of phone adoption, particularly smartphone and mobile application adoption, demonstrates an increased reliance on the mobile phone for information.

Before mobile money applications broadly roll out to consumers nationwide, the creation of fundamental education and marketing programs is vital.

Michael Morgenstern is principal at Marconi Pacific, a Washington-based strategy consulting and venturing firm focused on telecommunications, media and technology. Reach him at mmorgenstern@marconipacific.com.